Non-College Voters Are Turning Against Trump — A Key Voter Base That Won Him White House

Donald Trump's grip on the non-college-educated voters who propelled him to the White House is reportedly 'collapsing' as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

The shift, highlighted by CNN data expert Harry Enten and reported by The Independent, suggests Trump has moved from a strong advantage with voters without a college degree to a negative split, a dramatic reversal ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The fresh analysis on 10 February 2026 reveals a staggering 23-point swing away from the President within this crucial demographic. Once boasting a 14-point advantage over the opposition, Trump now faces a nine-point negative split among working-class voters. The shift comes amid a perfect storm of economic frustration and a national outcry over lethal federal immigration raids in the Midwest

'He is absolutely collapsing with the group of voters that helped put him into the White House,' Enten said.

The shift extends beyond Trump personally. The same demographic is moving away from the Republican Party at scale, raising alarms for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The Voter Base That Led to Trump's 2 Presidential Terms

To show the impact this voter base has had on Trump, the poll compared it with the 2024 US Presidential election. At the time, the approval rating of the current president within the group was 14 points higher than that of former Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has enjoyed this leverage since he won the elections in a landslide.

Recently, however, Trump now has a 'nine-point' negative split among voters with no college degrees.

'That's a 23-point switcheroo with his base of non-college voters,' Enten said.

Interestingly, it's not just Trump who received a very disappointing rating. Enten also found that the same voter base and demographic are moving away from the Republican Party in large numbers.

The US is now heading into the 2026 midterms. While the GOP still maintains a net-positive approval rating, the market is betting against them. Reflecting recent voter sentiment, the market is signalling that Democrats now have a higher chance of winning.

Why Trump is Receiving Declining Support

Trump gave several promises during his campaign, including reducing consumer prices and improving the U.S. economy. While bitcoin surged to a record after he won, the outcome of his presidency has been downhill since.

'What we're dealing with is a Donald Trump message that is not actually meeting the reality, and that is why non-college voters have been going away from the president of the United States and going away from Republicans as well.'

So many of Trump's promises were to give this demographic jobs, higher incomes, and a better way to afford everyday expenses through tariffs. However, Trump's aggressive tariffs did not bring back jobs, but lost them to offshoring. Neither did his promise of reducing consumer prices materialise.

Job rate has also been going up and down, and with AI taking away manual jobs, Trump's friends in the giant tech sector are the only ones on the receiving end.

But there's an elephant in the room, besides all of this: ICE raids.

Trump and the related federal agencies' promise to 'make America great again' suffered a blow when deaths from ICE operations came to light. ICE agents have, so far, shot over 2 Americans — Renee Good and Alex Pretti, among other unnamed and unrecorded concerned citizens who have shielded immigrants from violent arrests.

Not long after, several die-hard MAGA states, like Kansas, rose to protest. Even Republican-since-birth Americans are not happy with the way the Trump administration handled the two cases.

Neither death has yet put ICE agents at fault in prison.

Declining Voter Support: A Warning to Trump and GOP

Another warning sign sits within Trump's evangelical Protestant support base. The bloc remains broadly loyal, but approval of his specific policy agenda has softened.

Only 37% of all voters approve of his job performance, according to the polling data.

Approval of his economic management stands at 39%.

Trump has acknowledged that sitting presidents typically suffer midterm losses. He has insisted his polling numbers are the highest he has ever received and described the current economy as the 'best economy EVER'.

The data from his own base tells a different story.

Originally published on IBTimes UK