Aug 04, 2016 12:02 AM EDT
Dramatic Poll Swings During Political Conventions Explained: To Be Taken With A Grain Of Salt, Says Academics and Political Scientists! [VIDEO]
Academics and political scientists investigate the mechanisms behind the current swings in the poll counts with each candidate, a phenomenon very active during political conventions. The explanation to the poll swings were handed by the scientists who also added, "Half of the poll results are to be taken with a grain of salt".
Just two weeks ago, Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was at the top waving at fans for her long track ahead of Trump. Specifically, Clinton was ahead Trump by 5 points. Clinton's fast-track speed was said to be consistent for more than 2 weeks to be exact.
Consequently, those 2 weeks were proven to be in her favor since these were scheduled for the Democratic Party campaign period. Now, after about weeks of reigning, Clinton immediately felt the pang of revenge by Trump when the Republican Party announced its initial convention, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Upon the onset of Republican National Convention, Trump finally took the crown off Clinton by 7 distinguished points. However, as if by a conspicuous game of cards, favors suddenly swung back to Clinton when the Democratic National Convention last concluded Thursday. Real Clear Politics compilers had a hard time taking a full grip of the fluctuations, the LA Times again reported.
But what it is sure about these activities is that the current poll count of 6 points gained by Clinton cannot entirely ensure her place in the poll throne, despite the swings. Even in the previous weeks, she was already actually behind Trump by 2 points. Thereupon, even if she races ahead, she cannot fully beat the figures on record, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.
Now, a group of academics and political scientists decided to investigate on the poll swings, Vox reported. By referencing the RCP Poll Average graph containing the Romney vs. Obama track record, the scientists were able to speculate that the real flesh of the poll swings are the ones that occur a little bit after the conventions and not in the middle of it.
By all means, poll swings after conventions are what clearly define a percentage of the candidate's fate in the November elections. Furthermore, the researchers also backed their findings by leaving a tinge of caution to the voters. They proceeded that not everything in the poll counts matter and so, voters are to take things with a grain of salt, Vox again reported.
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