The Skills Revolution: Why 63% of Americans Say Four-Year Degrees Aren't Worth the Debt

Something fundamental has shifted in American attitudes toward higher education. In a startling reversal, 63% of registered voters now believe a four-year college degree isn't worth the cost, according to recent NBC News polling—a dramatic increase from just 47% in 2017 and 40% in 2013.

The numbers tell a story of eroding confidence. Only 33% now agree that a degree is worth the cost, down from 53% just over a decade ago. Even more telling: this sentiment isn't confined to those without degrees. College graduates themselves have flipped, with only 46% now saying obtaining a degree is worth the cost versus 63% in 2013.

"The cost overwhelms the value," explained Jacob Kennedy, a 28-year-old Detroit resident with a two-year degree who now works in the service industry. "You go to school with all that student debt—the jobs you get out of college don't pay that debt, so you have to go find something else that can pay that debt."

"63% of Americans now believe a four-year college degree isn't worth the cost—up from just 40% in 2013"

The Economics Behind the Skepticism

The mathematics of higher education have fundamentally changed. Tuition has doubled at public colleges and surged 75% at private schools since 1995, while starting salaries for many graduates haven't kept pace.

Research reveals the financial strain is real. Degree holders are spending 23% of their increased earnings on student loan payments, according to new Brookings Institution analysis. For master's degree holders, the burden is even heavier—57% of their earnings premium goes toward student debt in the early years after graduation.

Current students feel the pressure acutely. Only one-third (33%) of enrolled students say college is worth the cost, while 29% say it's not worth it and 38% are uncertain, according to a BestColleges survey. Among those graduating, 57% of the Class of 2025 have low expectations for their future after graduation, largely tied to a competitive job market and student loan debt.

The job market has compounded anxieties. Students in the Class of 2024 submitted about 64% more applications per job compared to the Class of 2023, and the Class of 2025 increased applications by another 24%—a frenzied response to shrinking opportunities in formerly reliable sectors like technology.

When Degrees Don't Deliver

Not all college investments yield positive returns. Federal Reserve research shows that 25% of college graduates see little return on investment, making less than $10,000 more annually than the median high school graduate. Their rate of return sits at just 2.6% compared to the average of 12.5%.

Field of study matters enormously. Humanities students are less likely than others to expect post-graduation salaries above $60,000 (45% vs. 67%), and they're nearly twice as likely to have no clear salary expectations after graduation.

Sarah Burns, a public policy professional, captured the paradox facing graduates: "It's not valuable because it's brought a bunch of value added, it's valuable because it's the key to even getting in the door. Our society needs to figure out that if we value it, we need to make it affordable."

The Skills-First Alternative

As confidence in traditional degrees wanes, a parallel revolution is underway: the rapid rise of skills-based hiring and alternative credentials.

Research shows that 96% of employers say microcredentials strengthen candidate applications, and 90% are willing to offer higher starting salaries to candidates with recognized credentials. More importantly, 87% of employers have hired someone with microcredentials in the past year.

The salary premium is significant. Employers are willing to offer 10-15% higher starting salaries for credit-bearing credentials—even higher for GenAI skills. Among professionals who earned microcredentials, 28% received a pay raise and 21% earned a promotion after completing their program.

"In 2025, the combination works best: foundational training for core skills plus microcredentials for specific competencies that match your target roles," notes a recent industry analysis.

Employers offer 10-15% higher starting salaries for candidates with recognized microcredentials

The Microcredential Advantage

Microcredentials—focused certifications that prove competency in specific tools or methodologies—are filling gaps that traditional education left behind. Ninety-two percent of employers note that graduates with microcredentials boast skills that can be immediately applied on the job.

Students are responding enthusiastically. Eighty-five percent of students with microcredentials reported greater confidence in their skills, while 94% said microcredentials fast-track skill development.

Platforms like Coursera, LinkedIn, and Indeed have integrated skills assessments directly into job profiles, while bootcamps and online learning providers offer accelerated pathways to employment. Major employers have taken notice: In 2022, IBM reported that 50% of their U.S. job roles no longer required a four-year degree, with improved diversity and retention as a result.

Trade Schools and Apprenticeships Surge

Traditional trades are experiencing a renaissance. Employment in electrical work is expected to grow by 11% this decade, with about 80,200 yearly openings for electricians. Solar and renewable energy fields are creating particularly strong demand.

The appeal is straightforward: earn while you learn, avoid debt, and enter high-demand fields quickly. Trade school programs typically last 6 months to 2 years and cost significantly less than four-year degrees. Graduates often transition directly into paid apprenticeships that serve as continued education.

Jonathan Kibirige's story illustrates the pathway. After moving to the U.S. from Uganda in March 2025, he earned two microcredentials through a biomanufacturing training program. "I got an offer to fully work on a contract [for] one year," Kibirige said. "It's a blessing. The training and the program was a good step for me to get into it."

The Degree Still Matters—But Context Is Everything

Despite the skepticism, data shows degrees still provide significant lifetime value for most graduates. Workers with a bachelor's degree earn on average 61% more than high school graduates (compared to 40% more in 1990), while those with graduate degrees earn 89% percent more.

California workers with a bachelor's degree earn a median annual wage of $90,000, while typical college graduates nationwide earn roughly $80,000 versus $47,000 for those with only a high school diploma—a 68% premium.

But the value equation depends heavily on three factors:

Institution type: About a quarter of CSU and UC students took out loans in 2022-23, compared to 43% at four-year nonprofit private colleges and almost two-thirds at four-year for-profit colleges. Students from for-profit colleges are most likely to default on loans and have lower wages even when they graduate.

Time to completion: Taking an extra one to two years to get your degree adds considerably to the cost, both in additional tuition and higher opportunity costs from delayed career entry.

Field of study: Returns vary dramatically by major, with STEM and business fields generally outpacing humanities and social sciences.

A Generational Divide on Debt

Views on college affordability differ sharply by age and experience. Only 22% of Americans say the cost of a four-year college degree is worth it even if someone has to take out loans, while 47% say it's worth it only without loans, and 29% say it's not worth it at all.

Young adults ages 18 to 29 are more likely than older counterparts to say the cost is worth it only without loans (55%), compared with 48% of those 30 to 49 and 44% of those 50 and older.

The sentiment reflects lived experience with debt. More than four-in-ten adults who attended college took out student loans, and many are still paying them off years or decades later.

What Students Are Choosing Instead

Faced with mounting costs and uncertain returns, students are pursuing alternatives:

Accelerated programs: Students are racing to complete degrees in three years instead of four, trimming costs by 25% and entering the workforce faster.

Community college transfers: Starting at community colleges and transferring to four-year institutions saves thousands in tuition while providing the same credential.

Gap years with purpose: Rather than enrolling immediately after high school, more students are working, earning credentials through bootcamps, or pursuing apprenticeships before deciding whether to pursue a degree.

Hybrid pathways: Combining work experience, microcredentials, and selective coursework to build portfolios that demonstrate capability without the four-year commitment.

The Confidence Crisis

Beyond economics, higher education faces a deeper crisis of legitimacy. According to a Gallup poll, only 35% said going to college is "very important"—a record low—down from 51% in 2019 and 75% in 2010.

Preston Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, observed that the traditional view about bachelor's degrees paying off has eroded. Students are now more interested in pathways that get them into the labor force quickly rather than taking on the risk of multi-year degree programs.

The life sciences sector exemplifies the shift toward skills verification. "A lot of the work in the life sciences, you don't need a degree to do," said Jared Auclair, dean of Northeastern's College of Professional Studies, who advocates moving toward skills-based resumes.

What Employers Really Want

The labor market is evolving faster than higher education can adapt. The World Economic Forum predicts that 59% of workers will require retraining by 2030 as artificial intelligence, automation, and technological advancement transform industries.

Ninety-two percent of employers are more likely to hire a candidate with a GenAI microcredential than one without one, reflecting how quickly skill priorities are changing. Traditional four-year curricula struggle to keep pace with these rapid shifts.

Skills-based hiring removes barriers for diverse talent. By focusing on demonstrated competency rather than credentials, employers access candidates from non-traditional backgrounds including bootcamps, self-learning, and industry certifications. This approach also supports diversity, equity, and inclusion goals while expanding talent pools.

The Path Forward

The skills revolution doesn't signal the death of higher education—it represents its transformation. The most successful educational pathways in 2025 and beyond will likely combine elements of traditional and alternative approaches:

• Stackable credentials that build progressively toward degrees while providing immediate workforce value
• Industry partnerships that align curriculum with real employer needs and provide guaranteed pathways to employment
• Flexible formats including online, hybrid, and competency-based models that accommodate working adults
• Transparent ROI data helping students make informed decisions about which programs offer genuine value

Most California parents (71%) want their children to graduate from college with at least a bachelor's degree, yet about seven in ten (69%) worry about being able to afford a college education. This tension—between aspirations and affordability—defines the current moment.

A New Definition of Educational Success

The question is no longer simply "Is college worth it?" but rather "Which educational pathway will provide the best return for this individual student, in this field, at this institution, leading to these outcomes?"

For some, traditional four-year degrees remain the optimal choice, particularly in fields requiring deep theoretical knowledge, professional licensure, or graduate school preparation. For others, alternative pathways—trade schools, apprenticeships, bootcamps, or microcredentials—offer faster, more affordable routes to rewarding careers.

The skills revolution recognizes a fundamental truth: there are multiple pathways to success, and the credential should match the career goal rather than following a prescribed formula.

As one recent graduate put it, success should be measured not by the pedigree of your degree, but by whether your education equipped you with skills that employers value, at a cost that doesn't cripple your financial future.

The revolution isn't about abandoning higher education—it's about demanding it deliver on its promises of opportunity and mobility. In 2025, that increasingly means proving value through skills, not just diplomas.