Weekly summaries of our group's Wednesday night Catan games

Spring Standings:  (1) *Scott: 1 (2) *Steve: 1 (2) *Pat: 1 (3) *Kristen: 0 (4) *Kathryn: 0 

*denotes status as a regular player.

Summer champion: Pat

Fall: Player Number Five

Winter: Pat, Steve (tie)

Winter points: Kristen

Pat Bickard is an accountant. Sure, I give him my taxes every year and have heard he spends eight, nine, or more hours per day at a small firm somewhere in middle Long Island, but I've never actually seen his work until he finally organized SOC starting position data he'd been collecting since the winter season. The results were eye-opening; the analysis was shrewd.

Not only have we been tracking wins and total victory points, but we've also recorded the winner's starting position for every game we've played over the last six months or so, a total of 42 Setters experiences. More than the rest of us, Pat was convinced there was an advantage to going first. But he couldn't prove it.

For a brief period in his life, Pat was obsessed with the concept of starting position. Every other week, he'd record the "Following" and watch it on Tuesday, just to see if it it was better before or after Fox's other action drama, "The Blacklist." On softball Saturday's last fall, he'd take a different route to Jones Beach, our usual field, and then jot down how he pitched that day. Like Will Ferrel in "Stranger Than Fiction," he was counting his steps, noting his tooth brush strokes, and generally over-documenting his life. Just as we've found balance between real life and Settlers by only playing on Wednesdays, Pat eventually found a balance by sticking to counting and accounting between the hours of 9:00 am and 6:00 pm. The subject of this journal entry is the only exception. We all agreed that he had to process these numbers. He'd been adding them for so long...

On a bus trip to Atlantic City and later in his (in)famous brown robe while watching Sunday night television ("Good Wife," "Mentalist..."), Pat organized over 20 weeks of data and arrived at the following conclusions (mixed in with some of my own interpretations):

...

The average starting position for winners was 3.27, a difficult number to interpret on its own. Since going third (7/42 winners) or fourth (6/42 winners) were the two least common winning positions, the 3.27 is actually misleading. Really, it means that going earlier (first or second yielded a combined 19 winners) or last (fifth or sixth yielded 10 winners) offers the best chance at victory. Averaged together, the data creates a number in the middle, or 3.27. The most common starting positions:

1. Second... 11 wins

2. Fifth/sixth... 10 wins

3. First... 8 wins

4. Third... 7 wins

5. Fourth... 6 wins

You could argue that the fifth or sixth positions (10 wins) were actually weaker than the third or fourth (13 wins), except we played six-man games just six times, while we always had at least four players. Together, we averaged exactly five players for the 42 games.

Further supporting the conclusion that going early or late is the best route can be found in the six six-person games. None of the winners of such games started third or fourth, indicating that a middle approach is usually a handicap.

More interesting than analyzing the overall numbers was analyzing the numbers as they applied to each player. We found that our unique styles seemed to relate to our most frequent winning starting positions. Below:

Pat

Averaging winning start position: 2.6 (second lowest of the five regulars)

Most common winning start: First or second

Interesting but maybe not surprising that Pat would have one of the earliest starting positions in his wins. Probably, that's what fueled his belief that going first or second was the key to victory. Known for his conflict strategy (or trying to beat opponents to third and fourth settlement locations), it makes sense that Pat would need to go first, which has several underrated benefits complementary to his approach. The first player puts his second settlement down last, allowing him to survey the board and ensuring the necessary resources/position to build his next settlements. Pat is always looking towards the future when laying down his first two houses. 

Scott

Average winning start position: 3.44 (highest of the regulars)

Most common: Fourth

It looks like I'm single-handedly carrying the fourth position. Again, the above data reflects my Catan philosophy. As Pat pointed out, going last fits the understated persona I've adopted as keeper of the white tiles, which blend in best with the surrounding board (disproportionately keeping the robber off my territory). More than that, it always bothers me when there's two equally great spots and I'm the first one two go. I prize efficiency, and nothing's more inefficient than a loaded board and a too early starting position. Also, lately I've been, as the health teachers say... developing. My open use of D-cards could be how I've freed myself from the territorial constraints of going last or in the middle. 

Kristen

Averaging winning start position: 3.0

Most common: 5

For a few weeks, Kristen gained a reputation for planting her crops annoyingly close to others' territories (aka placing her initial settlements in locations that nullify another's laid road). Such behavior would seem to be reflective of a player who wins with earlier starting positions, for that's the easiest time to commit such an act. Kristen's data both supports and doesn't support her reputation. (Since her average is 3.0 and her most common is 5, she must have a decent amout of first and second position wins pulling down her average).

Really, Kristen's seemingly inconsistent starting position data reflects an evolving player. Whereas earlier she'd rely on less common numbers to win, more recently she's been prevailing with more complex strategy. Though she's (apparently) not always shy about initiating conflict in the beginning of games, she typically prefers not to compete for subsequent settlements. Going last supports that strategy. Finally, Kristen is the most known harbinger of the she-devil Klaus Teuber dubbed in 1995, "The Longest Road." Typically, she accomplishes the special by linking the roads of her initial two settlements, which are easier to place in close proximity when beginning the game in a later position.

Steve

Average winning start position: 3.0

Most common: 1

Steve is the game's biggest "all-or-nothing player," as Pat termed his style. Amazingly, he tied for the winter crown last season while having the lowest accumulated victory points. What does this mean? It means that Steve wins when his numbers are hot, and hot numbers are easiest to find when going first. A typical winning move by Steve involves him holding dozens of resource cards, taking a sip of his budweiser, flipping his flat brim first up and then down, and using massive bank trade-ins to complete his tenth (or eleventh) victory point. He isn't a late game sleuth like Patty, an obsessive planner like me, or a specials-centric player like Kristen. Sometimes, Steven is seduced by Harbor Master. Most of the time, however, he meets his mistress in more traditional locations like cities/hotels.

Player Number Five

Average winning start position: 2.57 (lowest of the regulars)

Most common: 2

For a while, Player Number Five lost out on many trades because she wasn't quick enough in her dealings. That may be why she typically won with an earlier starting position, which usually results in more varied resources and thus less need for trading (players who go towards the end might have to settle for high-numbered spots at the risk of losing variety). Like Steve, number five is more of a resource accumulator/city planner than a strategist. A prime starting position followed by a quick city typically marks the beginning of her victory marches.  

Next week: The three-man, six-color game, and, of course, next week's game.

Also to come: Results from last week's Craigslist ad.